Georgia is set to provide a test on how quickly states can reopen their economies in the midst of the pandemic.
On Monday, Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, announced that a limited number of businesses could reopen this Friday. Yet many of those businesses, including barbers, hairdressers, manicurists, massage therapists, and tattoo artists, are in a gray area when it comes to meeting federal guidelines for reopening the economy.
Some are welcoming the news. โIf you don't open the economy at some point soon, the damage will be severe and unrecoverable,โ said Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital Group, said on CNBC. โI think we have to be smart about it, and we can be smart about it.โ
Others were alarmed. โIt looks like they collected a list of businesses that were at the most risk and decided to open those first,โ former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on CNBC.
Easing social distancing restrictions could risk a spike in the number of coronavirus cases. There are 18,391 confirmed cases in Georgia and 687 deaths.
For the first phase of reopening the economy, federal guidelines are for states to open a limited number of businesses and allow hospitals to conduct elective surgeries. Schools, bars, and restaurants must remain closed, and visits to hospitals and nursing homes are prohibited. The guidelines instruct businesses to close areas where personnel are likely to gather or enforce social distancing. Individuals should avoid groups of 10 or more people that do not allow for adequate physical distance.
But barbers, hairdressers, nail salons, massage therapists, and tattoo parlors are all businesses that require direct physical contact between the employee and customer. And it is not uncommon for more than 10 people to congregate in barbershops and salons.
"There is a way to open barbershops and salons, depending on the layout, but maybe not at 100% capacity," said Maura Scali-Sheahan, CEO of the National Association of Barber Boards of America, a trade organization. "Barbers and cosmetologists may have to stagger their appointments so there aren't too many people in the establishment at one time," she told the Washington Examiner. "They may also have to take more time to clean up after each customer." She emphasized that barbers and cosmetologists are trained in infection control procedures and that the association will be releasing its own suggested coronavirus guidelines on Tuesday.
When asked about whether these businesses can be conducted safely, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, was non-committal. "It will have to be on a community-by-community basis," she told reporters at the White House press briefing. "If people can social distance and do those things, then they can do those things. I don't know how, but people are very creative. So I'm not going to prejudge...but the presidential guidelines have made it very clear about phase one."
Georgia appears to have met the other federal guideline for phase one, that of having a declining number of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases within 14 days. State data suggests that the number of new cases peaked in Georgia on April 6. The often-cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model shows that the number of new deaths in the state peaked on April 7.
Gerardo Chowell, chair of the Department of Population Health Sciences at Georgia State University, isn't convinced. "We don't have reliable data to say we are past the peak," he said. "The testing we have done is suboptimal, so what we're seeing in the data is one thing, what is going on in the total population is quite another. There is a lot of noise in the data, and if you account for that, we are probably only a week after the peak, not two."
Some Georgia businesses are eager to reopen. Kenneth Williams, owner of Cutz Barber in Decatur, told a local CBS affiliate that, "The shutdown was disastrous. Well, weโre definitely going to open up Friday. Everyone canโt wait to open up Friday, so what weโre going to do is do strict appointments, make sure not a lot of people are in here."
Others are more cautious. "Unfortunately, the virus makes the rules," said John Camp, a painting contractor in Newnan whose business has come to a halt. "We should expect a big surge if we all go back to work," he told the Washington Examiner. "But we didn't all go into hiding to prevent everyone from dying. We'll have to keep a close eye on the virus's growth and be ready to close up shop again if needed."